ANALYTICS

Focus: Ili River Basin and Risks for Southeastern Kazakhstan

1. CLIMATE TRENDS: ACCELERATED GLACIER MELTING

• According to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), glaciers in the Tien Shan are losing up to 1% of their volume annually. Over the past 50 years, they've shrunk by 30%.
• Accelerated melting causes short-term increases in summer river flow but long-term depletion of sustainable water sources.
• Rivers such as the Ili, Talas, Shu, and Syr Darya and their tributaries, fed by the Zhetysu and Northern Tien Shan glaciers, are especially vulnerable.

2. ILI RIVER: A STRATEGIC RESOURCE UNDER GROWING PRESSURE

• The Ili River originates in China and flows into Lake Balkhash, a critical water body for southeastern and central Kazakhstan (Almaty, Zhetysu, and Karaganda regions).
• China is constructing new irrigation and industrial facilities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), increasing water withdrawal from the Ili.
• Estimates show that water intake from the Ili in China has doubled or tripled since the 1990s. Kazakhstan hasn't yet observed reduced flow—thanks to temporary glacier melt compensation.

3. “FALSE STABILITY”: WHY THE PROBLEM REMAINS INVISIBLE

• Current flow levels appear normal due to extra water from accelerated melting.
• However, glaciers are a finite resource. In 20–30 years, their volume could critically decrease.
• Once reserves are exhausted, summer flows will drop sharply—especially in dry years—threatening:
  • irrigation of Zhetysu farmland,
  • water supply for Almaty and Kapshagay,
  • the Balkhash ecosystem.

4. HISTORICAL PARALLELS: LESSONS FROM URMIA, SALT LAKE, AND THE ARAL SEA

• Lake Urmia (Iran): flow changes and uncontrolled water intake led to dramatic shrinking.
• Great Salt Lake (USA): climate change and industrial use caused drastic water level drops.
• Aral Sea: irrigation projects resulted in an environmental and humanitarian disaster.

Conclusion: The Ili River basin is facing a similar high-risk scenario.

5. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR KAZAKHSTAN

International legal actions:

• Initiate revision or extension of Ili River agreements with China, considering new climate realities.
• Ensure transparency of water intake data in XUAR (monitoring, satellite data, joint hydrological stations).
• Engage the UN, SCO, ICAO, GWP in cross-border regulation discussions.

National measures:

• Invest in hydrological monitoring and assess remaining glacier resources.
• Develop a long-term water management strategy for Lake Balkhash considering future inflow reduction.
• Assess the risks related to nuclear power plant construction.
• Support alternative water sources—such as wastewater treatment, snowmelt harvesting, efficient irrigation.

Scientific and civic diplomacy:

• Involve NGOs, universities, and international institutions in research and public advocacy.
• Publish open data on glacier and flow dynamics to raise awareness among citizens and policymakers.

6. CONCLUSION

In the face of rising temperatures and water demand, glacier melting provides only a temporary “calm.” A severe water shortage may follow. Given the strategic role of the Ili River and Lake Balkhash, Kazakhstan must act proactively—through diplomacy and internal water governance. Ignoring the issue today could lead to a new environmental catastrophe comparable to the Aral Sea disaster.