ANALYTICS

1. General Climate Conditions
   Southern regions of Kazakhstan in 2025 are facing an acute drought anomaly. According to Kazhydromet and the Ministry of Ecology of the Republic of Kazakhstan, air temperatures in the region exceed the climatic norm by 2–4 °C, while precipitation in some areas has dropped 30–50% below normal. The most vulnerable are Turkistan, Kyzylorda, Zhambyl, and Abai regions.

Global climate trends:

• Central Asia is warming 1.5–2 times faster than the global average.
• Reduction in snow cover and glacier melt.
• Increased evaporation, intensifying wind erosion, and loss of green cover.

2. Consequences of the Drought
   a) Agricultural sector:

• Risk of losing up to 40% of key crop yields (cotton, melons, wheat).
• Rising prices for water and seeds, decreasing profitability of agricultural production.
• Increasing social tension in rural areas.

1. b) Water stress:

• Decreased water flow in the Syr Darya and Shu rivers amid high interstate water withdrawals.
• Shortages in irrigation canals and drinking water systems.
• Growing competition between agricultural, utility, and industrial sectors.

1. c) Energy and infrastructure:

• Rising peak loads on power grids due to heat.
• Disruption of energy supply stability in regions with outdated networks.
• Increased fire hazard in rural areas.

3. Role of Solar Generation in Drought Conditions
   a) Climate neutrality and reliability:

• Solar power plants produce no CO₂ emissions and do not require water cooling, unlike thermal and hydroelectric stations.
• Reduces dependence on water resources amid shortages.
• Increases energy system resilience to daytime peak loads.

1. b) Desertification reduction:

• Solar panels create a microclimate, reducing evaporation and protecting soil from wind.
• Agrovoltaic development enables simultaneous energy generation and preservation of farmland.
• Can be installed on degraded or agriculturally unsuitable lands.

1. c) Autonomous water supply and irrigation:

• Solar power plants can supply energy for pumping stations, solar desalination, and drip irrigation.
• Ensures water supply in remote and arid villages.

1. d) Local energy security:

• Possibility to deploy autonomous systems (solar + ESS) in non-electrified zones.
• Reduces dependence on diesel fuel delivery.

4. Critical Commentary: Kazakhstan’s Lagging Position

• Despite high climate vulnerability, Kazakhstan is significantly behind in adopting modern practices for combating desertification and sustainable use of degraded lands:
• There are still no national programs for agrovoltaics, despite their proven success in India, China, and Egypt.
• Renewable energy projects rarely include integrated ecosystem solutions (greening + solar installations).
• No standards or incentives have been developed for installing solar plants on idle or degraded lands.
• Support for farmers almost never includes solar pumps and microgrids, which have proven effective in Africa and South Asia.

Such a delay is unacceptable for a country on the frontlines of climate risks, with high solar radiation and strong engineering potential.

5. Recommendations
   5.1. For government bodies:

• Include solar energy in national and regional climate strategies as an adaptation tool.
• Launch pilot projects for agrovoltaics and solar stations on degraded lands.
• Develop a subsidy mechanism for solar pumps and ESS for agricultural water needs.
• Include solar stations and microgrids in the list of priority investment projects for border and desertification-prone regions.

5.2. For business and investors:

• Develop integrated renewable energy projects (energy + water + biodiversity).
• Attract green financing (EBRD, AIX, green bonds).
• Build joint projects with local governments and agricultural cooperatives.

5.3. For international organizations:

• Support Kazakhstan in developing a National Desertification Control Program that includes renewable energy elements.
• Provide grants or concessional funding for modular solar projects with ecosystem integration.

6. Conclusion
   The drought of 2025 in southern Kazakhstan is not an anomaly — it is the new reality. Solar power plants are not just an energy asset but a climate infrastructure capable of mitigating the impacts of land degradation, water scarcity, and agricultural crises. Kazakhstan must not only scale up renewable energy but also use it as a systemic tool for sustainable development and climate adaptation.